Among crop ecologists there is now a consensus that for each temperature rise of 1 degree Celsius above the historical average during the growing season, there can be a 10 percent decline in grain yields.
“This year's world grain harvest is projected to fall short of consumption by 61 million tons, marking the sixth time in the last seven years that production has failed to satisfy demand. Although the rate of world population growth is projected to slow further, the number of people to be added is expected to remain above 70 million a year until 2020. Troubling constraints on grain production growth, such as spreading water shortages and rising temperatures, are making it difficult for farmers to keep up with the record growth in demand.
As a result the world grain market may become a seller's market, one where higher grain prices, like high oil prices, are an integral part of the economic landscape. The news is particularly alarming for India whose food grain production has remained largely stagnant over the past decade. “
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